Kuwait Forecast: Economist

Executive-legislative relations will remain fraught over the outlook period, as ongoing threats by MPs to cross-examine ministers lead to further votes of no confidence. The result is likely to be further ministerial resignations and/or cabinet reshuffles, although the emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Jabr al-Sabah, will seek to avoid being forced to dissolve the National Assembly (parliament) and call early elections, which would be held under a new five-constituency system that could advantage opposition groupings. Although the emir will remain pre-eminent in Kuwaiti politics, government policy will continue to be made on a consensual basis, following consultations within the ruling family and in some cases with the leaders of key groupings within parliament. No sudden changes in policy direction are expected, and there will be few, if any, major political reforms. Although the loose "opposition" parliamentary coalition of Sunni and Shia Islamists, centrists and liberals will remain divided on key issues, limiting parliament's ability to influence policies on which the government takes a strong line, domestic opposition (combined with the habitual caution of the ruling Al Sabah family) will also prevent the government from implementing any major economic reforms. The current account is projected to remain strongly in surplus, on the back of high oil earnings, averaging around 46% of GDP in 2008-09.